Global Trade Overview

Global trade has recently exhibited characteristics of "low growth and high volatility" amid multiple crises, with protectionism and supply chain restructuring persisting. Enterprises need to focus on policy risks (such as CBAM and anti-dumping), diversify market layouts, and accelerate technological upgrades to counter trade barriers. While maintaining its traditional advantages, China must break through containment through innovation and open cooperation.

Below is a core analysis of the recent (2023-2024) global economic situation, covering growth patterns, policy trends, risks, challenges, and future outlooks:

I. General Characteristics of the Global Economy

1.Slower Growth with Significant Divergence

IMF Forecast (April 2024): Global GDP growth is projected at 3.2% (compared to 3.1% in 2023), with advanced economies slowing to 1.7% while emerging markets maintain 4.2%.

Regional Disparities:

U.S.: Growth of 2.5% in 2023 (supported by resilient consumption), but Q1 2024 growth slowed to 1.6%.

Eurozone: Near stagnation (0.4% in 2023), with Germany in a technical recession.

Asia: Led by China (5.2%) and India (7.8%), Southeast Asia has become a new manufacturing hub.

2.Divergence in Inflation and Interest Rates

Inflation in the U.S. and Europe has declined (U.S. CPI dropped from a peak of 9.1% in 2022 to 3.5% in March 2024), but stickiness exceeds expectations, prompting the Fed to delay rate cuts.

Japan ended negative interest rates (raised to 0-0.1% in March 2024), while some emerging markets cut rates early (e.g., Brazil, Chile).

II. Key Dynamics of Major Economies

1.United States

"No Landing" Debate: Strong employment (March unemployment rate: 3.8%), but rebounding inflation has pushed back rate cut expectations to after September 2024, with 10-year Treasury yields exceeding 4.5%.

Tech Hegemony Reinforcement: Collaborated with the Netherlands and Japan to restrict semiconductor equipment exports to China; NVIDIA launched "special edition" AI chips to bypass bans.

2. Porcelana

Uneven Recovery: Q1 2024 GDP grew 5.3% (exceeding expectations), but real estate investment fell 9.5%, and youth unemployment stood at 15.3% (excluding students).

Policy Responses:

Issued ultra-long-term bonds to support infrastructure.

Promoted "equipment upgrades" and "trade-in programs" to stimulate domestic demand.

Accelerated RMB internationalization (e.g., currency swap with Saudi Arabia, CIPS share in cross-border payments rising to 4.2%).

3.Europe

Stagflation Pressures: Germany’s industrial output declined for 12 consecutive months; the ECB may cut rates earlier than the Fed (likely starting in June).

Green Transition Challenges: Farmers protested emission reduction policies, while the rise of far-right forces threatens EU integration.